What last year’s receipts say about the year ahead

New data from the 2025 CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions: Q4 & Year in Review, offers one of the clearest looks yet at consumer spending across 2025.

Affinity Solutions
03.9.26

What last year’s receipts say about the year ahead

Analyzing real-world transaction behavior across 11 retail categories reveals a consistent story: consumers didn’t pull back, they recalibrated.

After a year shaped by mixed economic signals, shoppers showed steady engagement but became far more selective about where they spent. Essentials remained strong, discretionary categories performed unevenly, and big-ticket home purchases continued to face pressure. The result is a landscape characterized less by volatility and more by intentional decision-making.

link to full article